China economy back on track, we see Global Economy coming on track in the first half of 2021.

Key Points: 

• China’s foreign trade is expected to have risen very strongly in October.
• According to the survey, China’s trade surplus is estimated to have widened to $46 billion in October from $37 billion in September.
• China’s economy is projected to rise by about 2% this year.

Due to a rebound in global markets and the domestic economy, China’s foreign trade is expected to have risen very strongly in October, a Reuters poll showed, but there are concerns that the coronavirus recent surge overseas could delay trade throughout the coming months.

According to a median estimate from a survey of 20 economists, exports are estimated to have risen 9.3 percent from a year earlier in October, down marginally from the 9.9 percent increase in September.

Imports were likely to grow 9.5 percent year on year, which economists considered being a decent increase, although it would be slower than in September when imports bounced 13.2 percent.

According to the survey, China’s trade surplus is estimated to have widened to $46 billion in October from $37 billion in September.

The estimates might indicate that the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy remains intact from the initial hit of a coronavirus pandemic.

China’s economy is projected to rise by about 2% this year, the fastest in more than three decades, but still much stronger than other major economies, as the coronavirus epidemic erupted faster, having become the first nation to be struck by the pandemic.

In China’s official manufacturing survey for October, the upward trend was also evident as the new export order sub-index increased at a faster pace.

Nomura analysts said in a research note that due to a revival of Covid-19 cases and a high base last year, a delay in the re-opening of some overseas economies would have weighed on the growth of imports in October. They were also anticipating less growth in imports of crude oil.

Some observers have noticed that, because of the long national holiday, there were fewer working days last month compared to the same time last year, which may lead to a slightly softer reading.

They also reported that China’s trade output could suffer over the next few months as trade partners are re-imposing strict virus control measures due to the recent resurgence of Covid-19 infections in Europe and the United States.

Some businesses have indicated that the second wave of infections abroad has resulted in extended procurement times for raw material imports and increased transport costs.