India’s cotton imports to double in 2024/25 amid declining production

Cotton imports: Higher imports by the planet’s second-largest fibre producer could keep global prices, which dropped to their lowest in over four years after top buyer China imposed duties on imports from the United States.

Surge in Cotton Imports

India’s cotton are expected to double in the 2024/25 marketing year, reaching 3 million bales, compared to 1.52 million bales imported a year ago, according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). The sharp rise is attributed to lower domestic production and higher demand.

From October to February, India has already imported 2.2 million bales of cotton, highlighting the increasing reliance on imports to meet domestic consumption needs.

Declining Cotton Production

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India, the world’s second-largest cotton producer, is set to witness a 10% drop in production in 2024/25, bringing the total output to 29.53 million bales. This decline is primarily due to:

• Reduced acreage allocated for cotton cultivation.
• Adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields.

Meanwhile, domestic demand is projected to rise slightly to 31.5 million bales, further widening the supply-demand gap.

Impact on Exports and Global Prices

The production shortfall is expected to reduce India’s cotton exports to 1.7 million bales, down from 2.84 million bales in the previous year.

India’s higher import demand could support global cotton prices, which recently hit a four-year low after China imposed tariffs on U.S. cotton imports.

Key Takeaways

• India’s imports could double to 3 million bales in 2024/25.
• Production is expected to decline by 10%, reaching 29.53 million bales.
• Domestic demand is rising, widening the supply gap.
• Cotton exports will shrink to 1.7 million bales from 2.84 million a year ago.
• Global cotton prices may rise due to increased Indian imports.

As India navigates this cotton supply challenge, the textile industry and policymakers will need to strategize imports and production incentives to stabilize the market.