Election 2020 of the Bihar Assembly: Modi moved the NDA in a close poll race?

Key points:

1.  In what was a very tightly fought election in Bihar, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieved a clear majority.
2. During the campaign, Modi addressed 12 rallies.
3. In the remaining 133 ACs, this is slightly better than the strike rate of 48.9 percent. 

In what was a very tightly fought election in Bihar, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieved a clear majority. 

The difference in the success of the two key partners of the alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP) and the Janata Dal (United), however, will indicate that the balance of power within the NDA will change significantly.

73 and 43 seats in the new assembly were won by the BJP and the JD(U).

Did NDA won because of their alliance: 

The disparity is in line with their strike rates; as a share of seats contested, seats won. For the BJP, this number is 66 percent and for the JD(U), just 33 percent. Has the BJP saved the NDA’s election? 

The NDA’s success in assembly constituencies (ACs), where Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed election rallies, is one way to look at this issue.

NDA’s performance in election: 

During the campaign, Modi addressed 12 rallies. HT has identified the NDA’s success in 110 ACs throughout the 12 districts in which these rallies have taken place. 

A simple analysis indicates that in these areas, the efficiency of the NDA is much higher. The strike rate of the NDA is 56.4 percent in these 110 ACs.

As per the Surveys:

In the remaining 133 ACs, this is slightly better than the strike rate of 48.9 percent. A more complex review, however, indicates otherwise.

 As has been figured out, in the second or third stages of the surveys, the NDA performed substantially better compared to the first stage.

In the 71 ACs that went to the polls in the first round, their strike rate was just 29.6 percent. In the 94 as well as 78 ACs that went to the polls throughout the second and third stages, this rose to 53.2 percent and 66.7 percent.

Greater tailwinds for the NDA:

In districts wherein Modi addressed rallies for the NDA, a phase-wise break-up of the success of the NDA in the 110 ACs follows a similar trend.

 In each stage where the Prime Minister addressed as well as did not address rallies, a comparison of NDA success in ACs shows that these rallies produced considerably larger tailwinds for the NDA in the third stage compared with the first and second stages.