Trump Signals Confidence on India Trade Deal Ahead of August 1 Tariff Deadline
Despite stalled talks, US President claims “access into India” is coming, credits tariffs for opening markets
As the August 1 deadline for steep new US tariffs approaches, President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about America’s ongoing trade negotiations with India, suggesting that a deal is within reach and praising his aggressive tariff strategy as the reason for progress.
Speaking to reporters after announcing a separate trade agreement with Indonesia on Tuesday, Trump described the new pact as a major win for American access to Asian markets. He then linked that success to ongoing negotiations with New Delhi, saying India is “basically working along the same line” and that the US is “going to have access into India.”
“We had no access to any of these countries,” Trump said. “Our people couldn’t go in, and now we’re getting access because of what we’re doing with the tariffs.”
India Stands Firm as Deadline Nears
Trump’s comments come as India’s trade delegation, led by chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal, is in Washington for final-stage talks. While the US has reached out to multiple countries with formal tariff notices ahead of the August 1 deadline, India remains one of the few still engaged in high-level negotiations.
However, the talks have faced serious hurdles. A tentative breakthrough appeared likely in late June, but negotiations fell apart after India refused to compromise on key agricultural issues—particularly dairy imports, which employ over 80 million people in India, many of them smallholder farmers.
Sources told India Today TV that New Delhi has consistently pushed back on US demands for greater access to its dairy market, citing not just economic concerns but cultural sensitivities and domestic employment. This impasse led the negotiations to miss the July 9 deadline set by Trump.
Despite this, the US President has continued to claim that a trade agreement with India is nearly complete, saying only “final details” remain.
New Indonesia Deal Sets the Tone
In his remarks Tuesday, Trump showcased the US-Indonesia trade agreement as a model. He emphasized that under the deal, the US will have full access to Indonesian markets with zero tariffs, while Indonesia will pay 19% tariffs on exports to the US.
“We made a deal with Indonesia… We have full access into Indonesia, everything,” Trump said, singling out copper as a key area of interest. Indonesia shipped about $20 million worth of copper to the US last year, far behind other major suppliers like Chile and Canada, but the symbolic win underscores Trump’s tariff-first approach to trade diplomacy.
While there has been no official confirmation of the deal from Jakarta at the time of writing, Trump’s framing appears aimed at pressuring other trading partners—especially India—to fall in line.
Tariff Threats Cloud Negotiations
The backdrop to these negotiations remains tense. Trump has issued multiple warnings about new tariffs in recent weeks, targeting both BRICS nations and countries continuing trade with Russia.
Last week, he reiterated plans to impose 10% tariffs on BRICS members, which include India, China, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, claiming the bloc was formed to undermine the US dollar.
He also floated 100% tariffs on Russian exports and secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Moscow, warning of penalties as high as 500% for nations aiding Russia’s war economy. India, as the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, finds itself in the crosshairs of this proposed sanctions framework.
NATO has echoed similar concerns, with warnings of potential 100% secondary sanctions on India, China, and Brazil if they continue energy and trade ties with Russia.
Uncertainty Ahead of August 1
With just weeks remaining before the US tariffs are set to come into force, pressure is mounting on New Delhi and Washington to finalise an agreement. For Trump, securing a high-profile deal with India could serve as a major win heading into a heated election cycle.
But India is unlikely to cede ground easily. With domestic sensitivities high, particularly in agriculture and small industries, Indian negotiators remain cautious about trading short-term market access for long-term economic disruption.
As things stand, India continues to weigh the costs of compliance with Trump’s tariff regime against the risks of economic blowback and geopolitical tension.
What’s clear is that Trump’s tariff diplomacy has brought India to the negotiating table—but whether it leads to a mutually beneficial agreement or further escalation will become clear in the coming weeks.
IT.
