Donald Trump asks his supporters to protest amidst his possible arrest

Donald Trump asked for protests against his likely imminent criminal charge, and police in central cities are ready for unrest.

But the overall message from some of his most vigorous supporters is: stay home.

Why are Donald Trump supporters wary of joining rallies he asked for?

Words are swirling on mainstream social networks, messaging applications, and Trump’s own Truth Social. There’s breathless talk about double agents and “false banners” – attacks carried out to blame rivals for the violence.

Many of the ex-president’s immutable supporters think that the Capitol riot on 6 January 2021 was started not by Trump lovers and far-right parties such as the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, but by national agents or left-wing “Antifa” – anti-fascist activists who wished to deny Mr Trump.

They point to the existence of secret FBI sources in the group that day, disclosed in court documents.

But that’s very dissimilar to saying there was a plot by federal authorities to induce violence. While there’s no proof of that – and voluminous evidence that the around 1,000 people charged in connection with the Capitol riot were Trump followers – fringe news sites have been filled with wild premises and advice about “deep state” plots.

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Some coverage has also filtered to more mainstream platforms such as Fox News.

The words, and fear of a recurrence of the events of January 2021, have prevented many of those out on the roads from opposing Mr Trump’s possible detention.

Ali Alexander, a far-right activist who managed protests leading up to the Capitol riot, revealed that he wasn’t planning to oppose. He said that conspiracy theorist Alex Jones of Infowars was even staying home.

The same ideas were rampant in pro-Trump Facebook groups, Telegram channels, sites like 4chan, and Truth Social.

In contrast to his messages before the Capitol riot, Mr Trump has not been clear about any potential protest’s focal point or timing.