West Bengal Opinion Poll: TMC Eyes Fourth Term as BJP Surges Past 100 Seats

West Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress is on course for a historic fourth consecutive term, according to the latest Vote Tracker opinion poll by VoteVibe released exclusively on CNN-News18. The survey projects TMC winning 174–184 seats in the 294-member assembly, comfortably clearing the 148-seat majority mark. However, the numbers reflect a notable dip from TMC’s 2021 tally of 215 seats, signalling a tightening political landscape.

BJP Makes Major Inroads

The poll’s most striking finding is BJP’s dramatic rise, with the party projected to secure 108–118 seats — a significant jump from its 2021 tally of 77. This revision also marks an upward shift from VoteVibe’s earlier March 23 survey, which had forecast 98–108 seats for BJP. Congress and CPM are expected to remain marginal forces, winning just 0–4 seats combined.

Mamata Still the Preferred Chief Minister

Despite the erosion in seat share, Mamata Banerjee retains a commanding lead as voters’ preferred Chief Minister at 46.4%, well ahead of BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari at 34.9%. Voter concerns centre on unemployment and development (35.1%), law and order (18.5%), and rising prices. Notably, over 53% of respondents expressed skepticism about the government’s Yuva Sathi employment scheme.

Religious and caste lines continue to shape voting patterns, with Muslims backing TMC strongly at 60.9% and SC/ST voters leaning towards BJP at 50%. If projections hold, West Bengal will see TMC return to power — but face its strongest-ever opposition.